Concept explainers on mental models, razors, and cognitive biases.
Prefer the explanation with fewer assumptions.
Don't attribute to malice what stupidity explains.
What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Anchor predictions in how often this kind of thing happens.
Update beliefs by how much new evidence shifts them.
Weigh outcomes by both magnitude and probability.
When you say 70%, does it happen 70% of the time?
Solve problems backwards — ask how it could fail.
And then what happens?
Know the edge of what you actually understand.
Every yes is a no to something else.
We see what we expect to see.
The losers don't show up to be counted.
Vivid examples feel more probable than they are.
Past spending shouldn't drive future decisions.
Imagine the project failed. Now work backwards to why.
How will you feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, 10 years?
Choose the option you'll least regret at 80.
Reversible decisions deserve less deliberation.
If nothing could prove you wrong, you're not making a claim.
Argue against the strongest version of the other view.
Don't remove a fence until you understand why it's there.
When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.
Outputs that quietly become inputs.
The whole behaves in ways the parts don't.
Rare events dominate long-run outcomes.
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