And then what?

Most decisions don't fail because the first effect was wrong. They fail because nobody asked what came after the first effect. Five scenarios. Trace the cascade three levels deep. Most people stop at one — that's the whole problem.

"The first-order consequence is what everyone sees. The second-order is where the money is. The third is where careers are made or lost."

Howard Marks · Oaktree Capital

Predict the cascade

Each scenario unfolds across three orders. At every level, pick the consequence most likely to actually happen.

Get fooled, then learn

Wrong answers aren't dumb — they're the obvious first guesses. Watching them fail is the lesson.

Find your depth

End screen shows your accuracy at each order. Most people are sharp at first-order and blind at third.

← Back to games